A machinist and Air Force veteran from Fort Worth just won a Texas state Senate seat that Donald Trump carried by 17 points. He did not squeak it out either. He won by 14.
Texas Senate District 9, special runoff, January 31
- Taylor Rehmet (D): 57 percent
- Leigh Wambsganss (R): 43 percent
- Trump’s 2024 margin in this district: 17.4 points
- The swing: about 32 points toward Democrats
- Spending: Rehmet was outspent by roughly 2 million dollars
A 32 point swing is not a normal number
Political people argue about a two or three point shift. Thirty two points is a different category of event. It means people who voted for Trump in 2024 either voted for a Democrat this time or stayed home, in large enough numbers to turn a safe seat inside out.
This was a special election, and special elections have low, weird turnout. That is a real caveat and we are not going to hide it. But a district does not move 32 points on an accident.
He was outspent by two million dollars
Rehmet’s opponent had roughly two million dollars more to spend. He won anyway, in a district drawn to be safe, in the middle of winter, in a runoff, which is the single lowest turnout format American elections have.
Reporting on the race credited the swing to suburban voters and Latino voters moving together, in Tarrant County, which has been the classic bellwether county in Texas for decades.
Why a Fort Worth race matters in Dunedin
It does not, directly. Nobody in Pinellas can vote in Tarrant County. What it does is answer a question a lot of our neighbors keep asking out loud, which is whether any of this is worth the effort in a red place.
Texas Senate District 9 is a redder place than Pinellas County. It moved anyway.
